South Okanagan Real Estate Market Update – Sales Strengthen, Inventory Elevated | February 14, 2026

With 35 firm sales this week — one of the strongest weekly totals of the year so far — and months of inventory dipping below 10 for the first time in weeks, the data is telling a consistent story: buyers are coming off the sidelines, slowly but steadily. In this week's update, I'll break down what's happening locally, how it fits within the broader national and provincial picture, and what it all means if you're thinking about making a move.

Let's look at the numbers — and more importantly, what they actually mean for you

National Real Estate Context: CMHC's 2026 Outlook

Canada's national housing agency released its 2026 Housing Market Outlook this week, and the headline message is measured: expect subdued conditions, with gradual improvement over the year. CMHC projects 489,000 home sales nationally at an average price of $698,000 — up modestly from the 470,000 sales and $680,000 average seen in 2025.

The broader economic backdrop remains challenging. CMHC projects real GDP growth of just 0.7% for 2026 — one of the weakest non-recession years in recent decades. Trade uncertainty stemming from ongoing U.S. tariffs, elevated unemployment, and modest income growth continue to weigh on household confidence and spending. Housing starts are forecast to decline to 247,000 units, down from 259,000 in 2025, as developers face higher costs and weaker demand.

Importantly for our region, CMHC expects the pickup in housing demand to be led by Ontario and British Columbia, where markets are expected to rebound after some of their weakest sales in decades. The rental sector continues to show resilience nationally, suggesting diversified housing demand that could eventually flow back into ownership markets.

The key takeaway? National conditions suggest caution — not contraction. Recovery is happening, just slowly. The question is how that translates to our local market.

British Columbia: Slow Start, But Recovery Expected

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reported that just 3,314 residential sales were recorded across the province in January 2026 — down 22.9% from January 2025 and 30.97% below the 10-year average. The average MLS® residential price in BC dipped 1.9% year-over-year to $924,239. BCREA's chief economist described it as the province's second-weakest January since 2016.

Active listings have climbed to 32,626 units across BC — a 5.6% increase from last year. More supply combined with slower demand means buyers in most BC markets currently have more leverage than at any point in recent memory.

However, the outlook isn't all cautionary. BCREA's own Q1 2026 forecast projects a 12% increase in provincial sales this year, reaching approximately 78,690 units. Mortgage rates are expected to remain steady, and there is significant pent-up demand from over two years of below-average activity. The expectation is that as economic uncertainty stabilizes, buyers will gradually return.

BC overall is slower — but the South Okanagan may be showing early signs of divergence from the provincial trend.

South Okanagan Weekly Data Breakdown

The standout data point this week is the 35 firm sales combined with months of inventory dropping below 10. Earlier in 2026, we were tracking closer to 14 months — a level that signalled a heavy buyer's market. At 9.8, we're still in buyer-favouring territory, but the trend line is moving toward balance. Average days on market at 96 suggests homes are still taking time to sell, but that number has been ticking down — another sign of gradually improving demand.

Core Market Themes This Week

Sales Activity Trending Up. Buyers are stepping off the sidelines. Increased showings, particularly in the mid-price range, are translating into actual offers and firm deals. The apartment and entry-level segments are seeing the most traction right now, which often signals the beginning of broader market engagement — first-time buyers and downsizers tend to move first.

Inventory Still Elevated — But Stabilizing. With nearly 1,500 active listings, sellers still face competition for buyer attention. However, the pace at which listings are being absorbed has improved meaningfully. Lower listing levels in some price bands suggest that while the overall number looks large, certain segments are tightening. This is not uniform softness — it's a market of micro-conditions.

Seller Psychology: Informed, Not Panicked. One of the themes I keep seeing is how well-informed today's sellers are. Many are following weekly market data — including these updates — and making strategic decisions rather than reactive ones. They're not rushing to cut prices. They're watching the data, holding where they can, and adjusting only when the evidence supports it. That patience is actually healthy for the broader market.

Limited Pricing Pressure. Despite elevated inventory, we are not seeing significant downward pricing pressure, particularly in the entry-level and mid-range segments. Upper-bracket properties have seen some price reductions, but overall, sellers are holding firm. The average sale price of $589,525 remains stable week over week.

On-the-Ground Observations

Beyond the data tables, there are real-time signals that matter. Open house traffic this week has been a notable indicator — not record-breaking attendance, but consistent, intentional foot traffic. These aren't casual browsers; they're people who have done their homework online and are ready to see properties in person. That's a meaningful shift from the tire-kicking we saw earlier in January.

The Family Day long weekend will likely create a brief pause in momentum, which is normal. Families are focused on the holiday, not house hunting. But the timing is worth watching — this is the unofficial start of the spring real estate season in the South Okanagan. The first open houses of the year are happening right now, and the buyer engagement we're seeing at those events will serve as a barometer for what March and April could look like.

This market is not about hype or headlines — it's about clarity. The data this week tells a simple story: buyers are returning, sellers are prepared, and the South Okanagan is finding its balance heading into spring.

There's also a psychological element at play. Buyers who have been watching from the sidelines are starting to accept that current conditions — elevated inventory, stable-to-steady pricing, competitive mortgage rates — represent an opportunity rather than a warning. Mortgage rate normalization has helped. When rates aren't swinging wildly, people can plan with more confidence. That clarity is a confidence driver.

What This Means for Sellers

Strategic positioning matters more than ever. With nearly 1,500 homes on the market, differentiation is critical. Buyers have options, and the homes that sell fastest are the ones priced accurately from day one, presented well, and marketed effectively. Early pricing precision reduces the risk of sitting on the market for months — and once a listing exceeds 90+ DOM, it can signal to buyers that something is wrong, even if the home itself is great.

Use open house traffic as a leading indicator. If you're not getting showings in the first two weeks, that's a pricing signal. Stronger sales weeks like this one favour prepared sellers — those who are ready to move quickly when the right offer comes. Don't wait for a correction that may not come. The market is telling you what it wants through traffic patterns and showing feedback.

The 34 price changes recorded this week show that some sellers are adjusting, but most of these are concentrated in the upper brackets. If you're in the mid-range and priced right, the current environment is actually working in your favour as buyer activity concentrates in that segment.

What This Means for Buyers

You have more selection than at any point in recent years. With 1,482 active listings, particularly strong inventory in the detached and townhouse segments, buyers have real choice. That's a significant advantage — one that won't last forever if absorption rates continue to improve.

Negotiation room still exists, but competition is building. The mid-price range is heating up. I'm seeing more multiple-inquiry scenarios in the $400,000 to $650,000 bracket — not bidding wars, but enough interest that well-priced homes are moving. If you're a buyer in this range, being pre-approved and prepared to act makes a real difference. The days of casually touring for months and then making an offer are giving way to a more intentional market.

Mortgage rates remain competitive by historical standards, and the expectation is that they'll stay relatively steady through 2026. If you've been waiting for a clear signal to start your search, this week's data — improving absorption, stable prices, plenty of inventory — is about as clear as it gets.

Forward-Looking Outlook

Short-Term (Next 2–4 Weeks): The data to watch over the coming weeks includes open house attendance, new listing volume, and whether this week's 35-sale pace can repeat or improve. If absorption holds, we could see months of inventory drop further toward the 8–9 range, which would represent a meaningful shift toward balance.

Spring Setup: If the current momentum continues through February and into March, the market transitions from "buyer-heavy" to "balanced." That's not a seller's market — it's an environment where well-priced homes sell in a reasonable timeframe and buyers still have selection. If sales slow again, inventory pressure returns and the window for sellers narrows. The next month will be telling.

On the national front, CMHC's expectation of gradual recovery through 2026 — led by BC and Ontario — aligns with what we're seeing on the ground here. The South Okanagan isn't immune to national headwinds, but our weekly data suggests we may be slightly ahead of the provincial curve in terms of buyer re-engagement.

The Bottom Line

The South Okanagan real estate market is not overheating. It is not weakening. It is stabilizing — with improving buyer participation and a data trend that points toward balance as spring approaches. This is a transitional phase, and the decisions made now, by both buyers and sellers, will shape how the rest of 2026 unfolds.

If you're watching this market, keep watching. If you're ready to act, the data supports it. And if you want to talk through what these numbers mean for your specific situation — whether you're buying, selling, or simply curious — I'm here for that conversation.

Clarity over hype. Strategy over speculation. Data-backed local insight.

Riccardo Manazza South Okanagan REALTOR® with eXp Realty — My Property Central Real Estate Group License: RE603392

(236) 457-4230 · riccardo.manazza@exprealty.com
riccardomanazza.realtor · livingintheokanagan.ca